I’ve come across a very good site here. In it, there is some serious discussion regarding the calculation of the Sunspot Number, and it’s deviation from the original Wolf number. If you have the opportunity have a look, a fascinating site, well presented.
One very nicely organised piece is on the “Layman’s Sunspot Count”, trying to correct the two counts taken as being the official view, and correcting them by removing specks that, in previous times, would not have been seen even with telescopes
It looks as though the sun is finally waking, since the start of 2010 (this is written on Feb 11th), we have had a grand total of 2 days without a spot being recorded on the face of the sun, this is a distinct improvement on 2009 where there were 76% of days throughout the year without any spots at all.
Of more interest however is the sunspot number, this is still consistantly below the number forecasted by NASA. In fact Solar Cycle 24 is still shaping up to be one of the quietest cycles of modern times, and that’s if you take the definition of modern back 100 years. Cysle 23 was one of the longest recorded, as 13.4 years, while cycle 24 looks as though it’s going to be a low powered cycle that may also be a long cycle. Many radio amateurs will be hoping for a bit more than what we’ve seen so far, as the 10M band has, as far as I’m aware, not been open since the end of cycle 23
Data provided on websites over the last few weeks seem to indicate that, as the Sun takes a rest during solar Cycle 24, UV Radiation has dropped by about 6%. I think this 6% is quite a drop, especially if you look and see that Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) only varies by between 0.05 to 0.1% over a Solar Cycle. This variation in TSI is thought to be too insignificant to affect climate, but what of the UV Decrease?
It’s well known that the majority of UVB and almost all UVC Radiation is absorbed by the upper atmosphere, mainly by ozone. But this radiation is, after absorption, re-emitted as black body radiation. Black body radiation is taken to be emitted in any direction, which means at least 50% is passed towards space, where it may be absorbed and re-emitted again.
Associated with this drop in UV is a decrease in the diameter of the atmosphere. NASA have said that satellites are experiencing less atmospheric drag when in low orbit (low orbit being between 120 and 200 Km above the surface). This means that there is less atmosphere, at the edges, to intercept UV.
So what if Carbon Dioxide is not the primary driver of climate variations? Perhaps UV plays a much larger role than previously thought. Perhaps, with a suitable lag due to the heatsink that is the oceans, we will see a much larger drop in Global temperature than is currently expected.
If you have any reliable data concerning the absorption and re-emission of UV in the upper atmosphere, I would appreciate seeing it
So here we are at the start of 2009, OK already almost 25% through the year, but, Temperatures are down, worldwide. Forget the idea that ice is melting, this year, look at facts, not hearsay. So why do I think the “Global Warmers” have got it wrong?
1) we are at the end of a solar cycle, the “Little Ice Age” happened at the Maunder Minimum where there were very few sunspots for a period of over 60 years.
2) The other known time of temperature decreases was the Dalton Minimum, which although nowhere near as long or as strong as the Maunder minimum did produce an overall decrease in world temperature.
3) The sun appears too have “switched off”, see this graph from the excellent wattsupwiththat notice the drop in activity in 2005, given it seems that a 3 year gap translates to a cooling, we are well on our way.
4) An unprecedented, at least in the last 35 years, Stratospheric warming is indicative of further cooling to come for the Northern hemisphere during this winter
5) The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) looks as though it will be negative for 2009, again leading to an overall decrease in temperature.
6) El Nino is the past, La Nina seems to be the dominant process for 2009 as it was for 2008.
7) Despite all the Global Warmers comments, the Antarctic, as a continent is gettingt colder, NOT warmer and ice is accumulating in greater quantities rather than not forming during the Antarctic winter. Western Antarctic needs to be looked at with a wider view, as the volcanoes under the ice COULD have a significant effect on surface temperature.
Add these facts together and what do you have? Global cooling to a point that will arrest, overall, the retreat of glaciers worldwide. Ther may still be some areas on the planet that get warmer, but overall, cooler is the trend and a miniscule change in global temepreature will be enough to stop the retreat