Rain? What’s that?

I come from a part of the UK that is currently VERY dry. Since April, we’ve had about 6mm of rain, during that time we would normally have had 60mm of rain, so the ground is dry, plants are staring to suffer, and, in the sky we see lots of cloud, but nothing falling from them.

Many places had storms just 2 weeks ago, we didn’t, and according to the excellent Netweather, we are unlikely to get huge amounts over the coming week, although, if we are really lucky we may get some heavy showers Thursday and Friday, I will keep you informed.

the Fax chart for Friday currently looks like this

Friday (I Hope)

Which gives me some hope at least

We shall see

UK Met Office vs others

Yesterday the UK Met office put out their long range waether forecast for the summer.  Overall prognosis Warm, Dry and Sunny.

I have a couple of problems with that, first, I think the UK Met Office is heavily biased towards the south of the country, specifically southern England.  Secondly it seems to be somewhat different to other forecasts I’ve seen.

The various forecasting groups, UK Met Office, European and US all use models that try to match previous weather with trends to predict what will happen months down the line. The variations that happen in a chaotic system, which is what the atmosphere is, mean that very small changes that happen today may have a huge effect further on in time, or conversly a competing change may cancel it totally.  This means that, past a time limit of just 3 days, variations mean that a standard weather forecast is, unless there are very strong trends, just a guess.  So here we are looking at 3 months!!

So let’s rewind a little and assume that the forecast models can manage to predict what will happen, it becomes obvious that there are significant differences because below is a graphic from the excellent Netweather web site


Now admitted, the temperature difference for Aug are small, but the graphic says that the average temperature for the whole country will be below average, whereas rain for august, from the same site is forecast to vary between a low of 80% for Northern Scotland to a high of in excess of 120% for Southern England.  Doesn’t look like too many BBQ’s for me

August Rain
August Rain